We should be less sanguine about deterrence holding in all situations. This is also true for other nuclear weapons states (NWSs). Having analysed these issues for a long time and advocated the deterrence framework, I have come to believe that such unerring faith in deterrence might increasingly be misplaced for a host of reasons. For our present purpose, however, the main question is simple: while there’s general consensus among security experts and nuclear establishments within India and Pakistan that nuclear weapons are a deterrent, should we consider that proposition a truism for now and the time to come? The nuclearisation of South Asia can be analysed from different angles. A quarter century since May 1998, they have stuck to the moratorium, though neither has signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Both governments, after the tests, declared a moratorium on further testing. The tests were a response to India’s five nuclear tests, conducted on May 11 and 13. Exactly 25 years ago, on May 28, Pakistan conducted five nuclear tests (a sixth was done on May 30).
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